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Poland Steel Market Faces Mounting Pressure Amidst Regional Instability and Border Tensions

Poland’s steel market is facing increasing pressure due to escalating regional tensions and military activities. The situation is particularly concerning given the recent deployment of troops to the eastern border, as reported in “Ukraine-Krieg: ++Polen schickt laut Bericht 40.000 Soldaten an die Ostgrenze – Russland beginnt Großmanöver ++ Liveticker“. While no direct causal link between these events and steel plant activities can be definitively established from the provided data, the broader geopolitical climate significantly impacts market sentiment and risk assessment. Moscow’s accusations of escalation by Poland, as noted in “Ukraine-Krieg: ++ „Geschlossene Grenzen, konfrontative Schritte“ – Moskau wirft Polen Eskalation vor ++ Liveticker“, further heighten uncertainty. The article “Ukraine-Krieg: ++ Slowakei fordert von der EU eine Gegenleistung für neue Russland-Sanktionen ++ Liveticker” highlights the wider geopolitical context which might influence supply chains and economic conditions.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Poland

Overall, the mean steel plant activity in Poland shows fluctuations but no consistently negative trend. From March to September 2025, the average activity ranged from 27% to 38%, ending the period at 30%. CMC Zawiercie consistently operates above the national average, while Ferrostal Labedy Gliwice consistently lags behind the average. ArcelorMittal Warszawa shows more variable activity levels.

CMC Zawiercie, located in Silesia, is a major EAF steel plant with a crude steel capacity of 1.7 million tonnes. It is certified under ResponsibleSteel and serves diverse sectors including automotive, building, and energy. Its activity has remained relatively stable above 58% throughout the observed period, consistently outperforming the Polish average. The plant even saw a peak activity in September 2025. Given the recent geopolitical developments reported in “Ukraine-Krieg: ++Polen schickt laut Bericht 40.000 Soldaten an die Ostgrenze – Russland beginnt Großmanöver ++ Liveticker“, this stability could be due to increased demand in strategic sectors; however, a definitive connection cannot be established based solely on the provided information.

Ferrostal Labedy Gliwice, also located in the Silesian region, has a crude steel capacity of 500,000 tonnes, utilizing EAF technology to produce crude, semi-finished, and finished rolled products. Its activity has consistently remained below the national average. Notably, activity decreased to 19% in September 2025, marking the lowest level in the recorded period. No direct link between this drop and the provided news articles can be definitively established, but the current geopolitical climate may be influencing its operational tempo.

ArcelorMittal Warszawa, situated in Mazowieckie, has a crude steel capacity of 750,000 tonnes using EAF. The plant produces a range of long products and is certified under ISO 14001 and ISO 50001, reflecting a commitment to environmental and energy management. ArcelorMittal Warszawa’s activity levels have fluctuated between 36% and 49% during the observed period. The plant’s highest recent activity was in September 2025 (49%). No direct link to the named news articles can be definitively established.

Heightened regional tensions reported in “Ukraine-Krieg: ++ „Geschlossene Grenzen, konfrontative Schritte“ – Moskau wirft Polen Eskalation vor ++ Liveticker” and military deployments (as reported in “Ukraine-Krieg: ++Polen schickt laut Bericht 40.000 Soldaten an die Ostgrenze – Russland beginnt Großmanöver ++ Liveticker“) may lead to disruptions in the supply chain, particularly affecting plants located near the eastern border. Increased military activity could divert resources and manpower, potentially impacting steel production and delivery schedules.

Recommended Procurement Actions: Steel buyers should prioritize diversifying their supply base and securing long-term contracts with plants demonstrating stable production, such as CMC Zawiercie. Buyers should also monitor transportation routes and assess the potential for delays due to increased border controls or military movements and consider increasing inventory levels to mitigate potential supply disruptions. Closely monitor official government statements and industry updates for early warning signs of supply chain bottlenecks. Finally, perform due diligence on all suppliers to verify their contingency plans in case of regional escalation, especially with the recent news of escalating tensions between Moscow and Poland “Ukraine-Krieg: ++ „Geschlossene Grenzen, konfrontative Schritte“ – Moskau wirft Polen Eskalation vor ++ Liveticker“.