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Europe Steel: CBAM Uncertainty Clouds HRC Prices as Rebar Market Shows Mixed Signals Amidst Fluctuating Plant Activity

In Europe, the steel market faces uncertainty due to CBAM implementation and sluggish post-summer demand. Italian rebar prices have seen volatility, as noted in “Italy rebar prices widen amid fresh deals heard, lower offers; traders in wait-and-see mode,” while the rolled products market is slowing down, impacted by summer import volumes, as reported by “Italian roll market starts to slow down after August break“. However, no direct relationship to satellite activity observations can be explicitly established from this information.

Here’s a table summarizing the recent monthly plant activity data:

The data shows a general downward trend in activity at SN MAIA Siderurgia Nacional (Portugal), declining from 24% in April-May to 16% in September. Pittini Siderpotenza (Italy) maintains relatively high activity levels compared to the others, though it has also slightly decreased from 58% in June to 53% in September. The SSAB Raahe steel plant saw a decrease from 35% in May-June to 31% in August.

SSAB Raahe, an integrated steel plant in Finland with a crude steel capacity of 2.6 million tonnes per annum (ttpa) using BF/BOF technology, experienced a decrease in observed activity from 35% in May-June to 31% in August. The news articles do not provide specific insights into factors directly affecting this plant’s output during this period. The plant’s planned transition to EAF production by 2030 may contribute to long-term market uncertainty.

SN MAIA Siderurgia Nacional, an EAF-based steel plant in Portugal with a 600,000 ttpa crude steel capacity focused on rebar production, demonstrates a notable decrease in activity from 24% in April-May to 16% in September. This aligns with the news from “Italian roll market starts to slow down after August break” noting that buyers sourced significant volumes from outside of Europe during the summer.

Pittini Siderpotenza, an EAF-based rebar producer in Italy with a 700,000 ttpa crude steel capacity, maintains relatively high activity levels throughout the observed period compared to other plants but experienced a slight decrease from 58% in June to 53% in September. This contrasts with the mixed signals described in “Italy rebar prices widen amid fresh deals heard, lower offers; traders in wait-and-see mode,” where strong demand due to heavy workload. No explicit connection can be established.

Based on the news articles and activity data, procurement professionals should:

• Monitor Import Dynamics Closely: The “Italian roll market starts to slow down after August break” article indicates that significant import volumes impacted European demand. Track import statistics to anticipate potential price pressure changes on European-produced rolled products. The Portuguese plant activity decline also supports this concern.
• Evaluate Rebar Procurement Strategies: Given the widening rebar prices described in “Italy rebar prices widen amid fresh deals heard, lower offers; traders in wait-and-see mode,” and the continued activity of the Italian EAF based steel plant. Buyers in the Italian rebar market should negotiate contracts cautiously, considering the mixed market sentiment and potential for further price fluctuations, and consider the local suppliers.
• Acknowledge CBAM Impact: The “European HRC prices have decreased slightly; the direction of market development is unclear” article and “The European market for thick-rolled products is in decline; imported material is offered at a CBAM premium” both indicate CBAM’s influence. Factor CBAM-related costs into long-term procurement strategies.