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China Steel Market Reacts Positively to US Trade Deal, Activity Signals Mixed

China’s steel market shows a positive outlook following a preliminary trade agreement with the US, as reported in “USA und China erzielen Rahmenabkommen für den Handel,” “Aussenhandel: China und USA erzielen vorläufiges Ergebnis,” “Handelsstreit: China und USA mit Zwischenergebnis,” and “Deal zwischen USA und China – Trump: USA und China haben sich auf einen Handelsdeal geeinigt.” While a direct cause-and-effect relationship between these agreements and immediate shifts in satellite-observed plant activity levels is not definitively established, the overall market sentiment appears optimistic.

Measured Activity Overview

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in China

Across China, the mean steel plant activity experienced fluctuation with an increase from December 2024 (37%) to January 2025 (48%) and then a decrease to 32% in June 2025. Yantai Walsin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. consistently operated at high activity levels, around 90%, throughout the observed period. Baosteel Desheng Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. showed increasing activity from January to March 2025, peaking at 61%, followed by a decrease in the subsequent months. Xinyu Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. operated at significantly lower activity levels, fluctuating around 10%. Bengang Steel Plates Co., Ltd. showed moderate activity, generally below the mean. Guangdong Yuebei United Steel Co., Ltd. had moderate activity, showing an increase to 53% in May, but no data is available for June.

Yantai Walsin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd., based in Shandong, consistently maintained high activity levels around 90% throughout the observed period. Specializing in stainless steel production via EAF (Electric Arc Furnace) technology with a crude steel capacity of 1400 ttpa, this plant’s consistent output suggests stable demand for its special steel products, hot and cold rolled steel coils, and seamless steel tubes. No direct connection to the US-China trade news can be established based on the current data.

Baosteel Desheng Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. in Fujian, an integrated BF (Blast Furnace) and BOF (Basic Oxygen Furnace) plant with a 3410 ttpa crude steel capacity, saw activity peak at 61% in March 2025 before declining to 52% in June 2025. The decline in activity may be linked to the trade agreements, although no direct link can be established. The plant produces stainless steel.

Xinyu Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd., located in Jiangxi, operates with integrated BF and BOF technology alongside a single EAF, has a 10000 ttpa crude steel capacity. Its activity remained consistently low, around 10%, during the observed period. The plant produces medium, cold and hot rolled, thick, and extra thick plates, and the low activity suggests that demand for these products is low. No direct connection between the news and activity can be established.

Bengang Steel Plates Co., Ltd., in Liaoning, an integrated BF and BOF steel plant alongside 2 EAFs and a substantial crude steel capacity of 12800 ttpa, showed moderate activity levels below the mean. Activity levels in June were at 37%. The plant focuses on automotive plates, home appliance plates, oil pipeline steel and container plates. The decrease in activity may be linked to the trade agreements, although no direct link can be established.

Guangdong Yuebei United Steel Co., Ltd., based in Guangdong and operating BF, BOF and EAF technologies, focuses on rebar production with a smaller 2000 ttpa crude steel capacity. Activity increased to 53% in May 2025, but no June data is available. The plant is focused on Rebar production for building and infrastructure end-users. No direct connection to the US-China trade news can be established based on the current data.

Evaluated Market Implications

The recent trade agreements between the US and China, reported in “USA und China erzielen Rahmenabkommen für den Handel,” “Aussenhandel: China und USA erzielen vorläufiges Ergebnis,” “Handelsstreit: China und USA mit Zwischenergebnis,” and “Deal zwischen USA und China – Trump: USA und China haben sich auf einen Handelsdeal geeinigt,” create a positive market sentiment that may lead to changes in steel demand.

  • Potential Supply Disruptions: The observed decrease in activity at Baosteel Desheng Stainless Steel Co., Ltd. may indicate potential short-term supply fluctuations in stainless steel. However, this is not directly linked to the news articles and requires further investigation.
  • Procurement Actions: Steel buyers should closely monitor Baosteel Desheng Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.’s output and consider diversifying stainless steel suppliers to mitigate potential disruptions. Given Yantai Walsin Stainless Steel Co., Ltd.’s consistently high activity, it remains a reliable source for special steel products, hot and cold rolled steel coils, and seamless steel tubes. Buyers should carefully assess the impact of the trade agreement on specific steel products based on their origin and intended market. Given the low activity at Xinyu Iron and Steel Group, buyers should be prepared for slower delivery times of medium, cold and hot rolled, thick, and extra thick plates.