Significant Decline in Steel Activity Signals Supply Risks

Introduction

Located in the Gomel Region of Belarus and state-owned, Byelorussian Steel Works specializes in producing electric steel with an annual capacity of 3 million tonnes. The facility serves key sectors such as automotive, building and infrastructure, and energy, manufacturing products like billets and rebar.

Activity Changes Over Time

Recent data indicate a substantial decline in operational activity at Byelorussian Steel Works. Over the past few months, the output from the Electric Arc Furnaces has dropped sharply, reflecting broader market challenges and increasing competition.

The thermal activity has shown a downward trend from February through May, culminating in an overall activity decrease of -52.19%. This decline is particularly evident in May, where EAF_1 exhibited the lowest recorded operational level, suggesting significant challenges ahead.

Implications for Steel Buyers and Analysts

The observed trends at Byelorussian Steel Works represent a potential bottleneck in steel supplies, particularly as other regions, such as Belgium, have reported increased production in the same timeframe, with a notable rise of 6.2% in Q1 2025 (as detailed in Belgium increased steel production by 6.2% y/y in Q1). Market analysts should closely monitor these dynamics as they could affect steel pricing and availability, especially amidst the backdrop of decreased global production in February, down by 3.4% year-on-year (Global steel production in February decreased by 3.4% y/y). Consequently, steel buyers may need to evaluate alternative suppliers to mitigate potential disruptions linked to production halts at Byelorussian Steel Works.