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Ukraine Steel Market Outlook: Strong Exports and Rising Activity Drive Positive Sentiment

Recent reports indicate that Ukraine’s steel industry is on an upward trajectory despite some challenges in iron ore exports. The article Ukraine saw a 26.1% y/y fall in iron ore exports in January–May highlights a significant decline in iron ore exports, totaling 10.01 million tonnes. However, this contrasts sharply with the findings in Ukraine increased exports of semi-finished products by 41.6% m/m in May,” which showcases a remarkable rebound in the export of semi-finished steel products, reflecting robust demand and operational recovery. Additionally, Ukraine’s pig iron exports rose by 8.3 per cent y/y in January–May underscores a continued positive performance in pig iron exports, although May figures showed a monthly decline.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Ukraine

The mean plant activity in Ukraine rose notably, peaking at 41.0% in April 2026 before declining to 31.0% in May but rebounding again in June. Donetsksteel has struggled, with a peak of 60.0% activity in January now dwindling to 17.0% in June. This aligns less clearly with the positive export news, suggesting operational challenges at the plant. Conversely, Yenakiieve maintains steady operations, averaging around 39-44%. Alchevsk shows resilience with strong albeit stable activity around 45% in recent months.

Donetsksteel’s decline reflects not just local operational challenges but also market pressures as seen in the iron ore export declines. Meanwhile, the rise in semi-finished exports and pig iron suggests a beneficial environment for Yenakiieve and Alchevsk, both engaged in producing these segments.

The potential for supply disruptions exists primarily at Donetsksteel due to observed activity levels. Procurement professionals should consider bolstering their supply chains with initiatives aimed at securing semi-finished steel products from Yenakiieve and Alchevsk. The notable 41.6% month-on-month increase in semi-finished product exports provides a timely opportunity for buyers to lock in favorable contracts while demand remains high, supported by rising activity levels in the sector.