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Steel Market in Iran: Heightened Risks Amid Political Unrest and Plant Activity Declines

Iran’s steel market faces a very negative outlook due to escalating political instability, notably following Trump calls off talks with Iran, which has led to significant geopolitical tensions and subsequent economic repercussions. This unrest has resulted in satellite-observed reductions in operational activity at key steel plants and a concerning decline in the overall market stability, with no direct link to plant activity in the context of new developments.

Miyaneh Steel in East Azerbaijan registered a peak activity of 100% in January 2026, marking the end of a strong operational period. In contrast, the Mobarakeh Steel plant exhibited a drastic decline to 1% in October 2025, reflecting severe operational instability likely intensified by external political pressure, as indicated in Trump calls off talks with Iran: Update.

Khouzestan Steel and Khorasan Steel maintained moderate activity, but Khouzestan’s operations are vulnerable to further geopolitical pressures. The enforced tariffs may impact raw material costs and imports crucial to operations, highlighting a potential exacerbation of supply chain challenges.

Analysis of this data reveals that procurement strategies should adapt in light of the recent operational fluctuations. Buyers should consider sourcing from plants displaying higher activity levels, such as Mobarakeh Steel, which despite declining lows, have shown recovery back to 94% in January 2026. Long-term contractual arrangements or alternative sourcing strategies may become essential to mitigate the risk of sudden supply disruptions, especially given insights drawn from Trump claims crackdown in Iran is over: Update, which left unresolved uncertainties regarding regional stability.

Steel buyers are advised to closely monitor ongoing developments, especially those tied to U.S.-Iran relations, and to remain flexible in their purchasing due to fluctuating operational capacities across the Iranian steel sector.