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Steel Market in Asia Faces Challenges Amid Escalating EU-China Trade Dispute

Recent developments have intensified the negative sentiment in the Asian steel market, particularly with the news that “China and the EU agree on steps to resolve their dispute over EV imports” which underscores ongoing complexities in international trade relationships affecting steel consumption. As satellite observations indicate a decrease in activity levels across several major steel plants, it suggests broader market challenges potentially linked to this geopolitical issue.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Asia

Notably, the activity levels have significantly declined, with a marked drop in the mean activity from 40% in August to just 23% in October—aligning with broader market anxiety over potential supply chain disruptions due to the trade friction highlighted in the news articles.

The Tata Steel Kalinganagar plant in Odisha saw activity decrease from 55% in August to 49% in October, indicating challenges in meeting customer demand, particularly from the automotive sector, as uncertainty about imports from China looms. This disruption may be exacerbated by the sentiment expressed in EU und China nähern sich im Streit um E-Auto-Importe an,” suggesting that any instability may lead to reduced steel demand.

Similarly, JSW Steel Dolvi experienced fluctuations, with activity dropping to 51% in October from 44% in September, potentially reflecting hesitance in procurement amid fluctuating market conditions. The plant’s reliance on energy and automotive sectors heightens exposure to prices and supply chain consistency.

In comparison, the SeAH Besteel Gunsan and Mescier Iron and Steel Bartin plants show relatively stable numbers but signify a need for vigilance. The Gunsan plant’s activity increased slightly amidst regional demand pressures while Bartin maintained a stable output. Such stability, however, comes with an underlying threat should the upstream supply from China or neighboring regions face interruptions.

Procurement Recommendations:
1. Tata Steel Kalinganagar & JSW Steel Dolvi: Buyers should consider securing contracts for immediate needs, as ongoing production decreases could lead to short supplies, especially for automotive components.
2. Monitor SeAH Besteel Gunsan: Despite recent stability, fluctuations in demand from the automotive sector necessitate close monitoring of import policies that could impact pricing and availability.
3. Diversification of Supply: With the uncertainty surrounding trade agreements highlighted in Womit deutsche Kunden nach den Mindestpreisen für Chinas E-Autos rechnen müssen,” firms should explore alternative regional suppliers to mitigate risks associated with concentrated sourcing.

In summary, the current activity levels and external geopolitical factors dictate a cautious approach for steel buyers in Asia, prioritizing contract security and supply chain diversification to weather market volatility.