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European Steel Market Faces Headwinds: Swiss Climate Vote Failure & Mixed Plant Activity Signal Uncertainty

Europe’s steel market faces a challenging outlook influenced by recent political developments in Switzerland and mixed signals from observed steel plant activity. The failure of the Swiss “Initiative for a Future,” as reported in “30.11.2025: Abstimmung Erbschaftssteuer-Initiative – die Resultate” which proposed funding climate protection through inheritance taxes, may dampen investment in green steel initiatives, indirectly impacting long-term demand for sustainably produced steel. However, no immediate connection to observed plant activity can be established.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Europe

The average European steel plant activity shows a volatile trend over the observed period, peaking in July/August 2025 and declining significantly by October 2025.

CMC Zawiercie steel plant: This Polish plant, with a 1.7 million tonne EAF-based crude steel capacity, shows a gradual increase in activity, from 58% in June to 61% in October. This trend does not appear to be directly linked to the Swiss news articles.

ArcelorMittal Méditerranée Fos sur Mer steel plant: This integrated BF/BOF plant in France, with a 4 million tonne crude steel capacity, exhibits relatively stable activity, fluctuating between 33% and 36%. No direct link can be established between these stable operations and the Swiss vote results. The plant is scheduled to shut down it’s BOF by 2030.

Deutsche Edelstahlwerke steel plant: This German EAF-based plant, with a 0.6 million tonne crude steel capacity, shows stable activity at around 28-30% during the observed months. This stability cannot be directly linked to the Swiss news articles.

Evaluated Market Implications:

Given the mixed activity levels and the uncertainty surrounding climate investment following the Swiss vote against the “Initiative for a Future,” steel buyers should:

  • Closely monitor price volatility: The decreasing average activity levels across Europe coupled with political uncertainty suggests potential for price fluctuations.
  • Strengthen supplier relationships: Secure supply by reinforcing relationships with existing suppliers, particularly those demonstrating consistent production like CMC Zawiercie.
  • Evaluate alternative sourcing options: Explore sourcing from regions with stable or increasing production to mitigate risks associated with potential European supply constraints.
  • Factor in long-term decarbonization challenges: The rejection of the Swiss inheritance tax initiative may slow down the transition towards green steel in some regions, influencing future procurement strategies.