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Ukraine Steel Market Shows Positive Trends Amid Export Ban on Scrap Metal

The steel market in Ukraine is exhibiting positive growth, primarily driven by government policies aimed at retaining valuable materials domestically. Recent articles, including “The Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine has extended the ban on the export of timber and scrap metal until the end of 2026” and The government has set zero quotas for scrap exports from Ukraine for 2026,” emphasize the government’s commitment to promoting local processing of scrap metal—an initiative expected to boost the domestic metallurgy sector and create employment opportunities. Satellite observations indicate a noticeable increase in plant activity correlating with these news articles.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Ukraine

The activity trends reveal David’s decreasing levels at Donetsksteel, earning only 15% in July and declining further to 9% by October. This reduced output does not appear to directly connect with the recent legislative changes. Metinvest Zaporizhstal shows a maximum activity of 26% and trending downward, indicating potential issues in production consistency, while Metallurgical Plant Kametstal reached a peak of 49% in October, suggesting robust demand or operational efficiency that aligns with the government’s policies favoring local sourcing of scrap for improving production capability.

ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rih and Yenakiieve Iron & Steel Works exhibit varying activity levels; both plants are slightly above the mean, indicating stable operations in the current political climate. Specifically, the zero export quotas for scrap set for 2026 aim to short-circuit the underperformance observed in various plants by ensuring an adequate supply of scrap for domestic needs, as highlighted in the article Ukraine imposes a total ban on the export of scrap metal from 2026.”

Given the steel market’s current positive sentiment rooted in domestic policy adjustments, procurement professionals should focus on sourcing from facilities with stable or increasing production levels, such as Metallurgical Plant Kametstal, while remaining cautious of Donetsksteel’s significant downturn. Engaging with plants that will benefit from local processing initiatives—such as those highlighted above—will be essential in ensuring sustained supply and aligning with governmental shifts targeting local industry growth and environmental compliance.