Strong Steel Market Outlook in Europe Signals Opportunities for Buyers

Recent developments in the European steel market indicate a very positive sentiment, particularly following the news regarding the UK $6 billion trade deal with Trump includes removal of steel, aluminum tariffs. This agreement aims to bolster steel trade and domestic production, alongside efforts to nationalize British Steel, which could positively influence capacity and pricing dynamics in Europe.

Analysis of recent satellite-observed plant activity reveals noticeable changes in manufacturing levels across key European plants:
| Date | Mean Steelplant Activity in Europe | ArcelorMittal Bremen steel plant | CMC Zawiercie steel plant | ArcelorMittal Gent steel plant |
|————|————————————|———————————|—————————|——————————–|
| 2024-11-30 | 19.0% | 8.0% | 48.0% | N/A |
| 2024-12-31 | 22.0% | 7.0% | 49.0% | 64.0% |
| 2025-01-31 | 23.0% | N/A | 53.0% | 61.0% |
| 2025-02-28 | 30.0% | 6.0% | 56.0% | 58.0% |
| 2025-03-31 | 31.0% | 5.0% | 58.0% | 57.0% |
| 2025-04-30 | 31.0% | 6.0% | 58.0% | 57.0% |
| 2025-05-31 | 20.0% | N/A | 57.0% | 59.0% |

The ArcelorMittal Bremen plant observed a decline to 5.0% activity in March 2025, remaining inferior to the mean European activity levels. This drop has no clear connection to the recent UK trade news. Conversely, the ArcelorMittal Gent plant, with a capacity of 5,000 tonnes of crude steel, maintained a peak activity of 64.0% in December 2024 and 61.0% in January 2025, indicating strong operational performance that may benefit from tariff removals cited in the news.

The CMC Zawiercie plant demonstrated relatively stable activity levels, with a peak at 58.0% during February and March 2025, without any direct relation to the recent tariff discussions. Despite this stability, its reliance on dynamic trade policies suggests potential for future growth, particularly in light of trade agreements.

The UK $6 billion trade deal is likely to influence supply chains, particularly for UK-based steel products, potentially increasing demand from European buyers looking to capitalize on lower tariff expenses. It could also lead to supply disruptions in plants that are not well-positioned to compete with reinvigorated UK production.

Recommendations for Steel Buyers:
1. Monitor developments around UK trade: With the potential for increased competition from UK steel post-tariff removal, stakeholders should position themselves to leverage lower price points or diversify their sources.

  1. Actively assess ArcelorMittal Gent: Given its higher activity levels and product range, pursuing procurement from this plant may provide better terms and availability given its recent performance.

  2. Prepare for fluctuations based on trade shifts: As these developments unfold, ensure inventory strategies align with potential surges or declines in European production as a direct consequence of the UK’s changing position in the steel market.