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European Steel Market Shows Resilience Amidst Ukrainian Production Dip: Activity Levels Stable, Consumption Rising

Europe’s steel market demonstrates underlying strength despite challenges in Ukraine. Recent data, coupled with the news articles “Steel production in Ukraine fell by 14% in May – Worldsteel” and “Steel production in Ukraine fell by 14% in May — Worldsteel,” highlight a decrease in Ukrainian steel production. However, satellite-observed activity levels at key European steel plants remain relatively stable, suggesting limited immediate impact on overall European supply from Ukrainian production declines. The article “Ukraine reduced semi-finished products’ exports by 34% y/y in January-May” further reinforces the supply concerns. “Consumption of steel products in Ukraine rose to 1.56 million tons in January-May” indicates increasing internal demand within Ukraine potentially impacting export volumes available to Europe.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Europe

The satellite data reveals that average steel plant activity in Europe shows significant fluctuation that is not considered reliable due to the large variance and inconsistency.
Makstil Skopje’s activity has shown a generally upward trend over the past few months, culminating in a peak of 55% in June, while both Liberty Czestochowa and Feralpi Calvisano Lonato have experienced slight decreases. The activity level of both plants is below the all time high activity levels.

Makstil Skopje, a North Macedonian steel plant with a 550ktpa EAF capacity focused on semi-finished slabs, exhibited relatively consistent activity levels, peaking at 55% in June. This increase in activity does not have a clear connection to the articles about the Ukrainian steel market.

Liberty Czestochowa, a Polish steel plant with an 840ktpa EAF capacity specializing in plate production, has seen a minor decrease in activity, stabilizing at 34% in the last three months. Again, no direct connection can be established between this activity and the Ukrainian production declines reported in the provided news articles.

Feralpi Calvisano Lonato, an Italian steel plant producing billets via EAF with a capacity of 600ktpa, also shows stable activity levels over the period, with a slight dip to 31% in June. Similar to the other plants, there’s no evident relationship between its observed activity and the reported changes in the Ukrainian steel market.

The news article “Consumption of steel products in Ukraine rose to 1.56 million tons in January-May” indicates an increase in domestic demand within Ukraine. Considering this, coupled with the article “Ukraine reduced semi-finished products’ exports by 34% y/y in January-May“, steel buyers should anticipate potential delays or reduced availability of semi-finished products, particularly slabs, from Ukrainian suppliers. Given the increased activity at Makstil Skopje, procurement professionals should explore options to diversify supply chains by engaging with Makstil Skopje for slab procurement to mitigate potential shortages stemming from reduced Ukrainian exports of semi-finished steel.