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European Steel Market Faces Uncertainty Amidst Geopolitical Tensions and Production Fluctuations

Europe’s steel market is facing increased uncertainty due to escalating geopolitical tensions and fluctuating production levels. The situation is exacerbated by concerns regarding Russia’s actions, as highlighted in “Merz warnt vor Putins „imperialistischem Plan“ – und gibt Diplomaten eine Botschaft mit“. Simultaneously, ongoing disruptions related to the war in Ukraine are influencing steel production and trade dynamics, with potential implications for supply chains, while some of the plants show declining activity levels.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Europe

Observed mean steel plant activity in Europe does not provide meaningful information, so it is ignored. The Uralwagonsawod steel plant in Russia experienced a gradual increase in activity from March (38%) to May (44%), followed by a slight decline to 39% by August, but the September data is missing. The AFV Accaierie Beltrame Vicenza steel plant in Italy showed a consistent decline from March (27%) to September (10%). In contrast, the Tenaris Dalmine steel plant in Italy demonstrated a steady increase in activity from March (58%) to July (65%), with a slight decrease to 64% in August and September.

Uralwagonsawod steel plant

Uralwagonsawod, located in the Rostov region of Russia, is a steel plant primarily serving the defense sector. Its technological equipment and processes are unknown. Activity at the Uralwagonsawod steel plant peaked in May at 44% and then decreased to 39% in August, but September data is missing. Given the plant’s focus on the defense sector and the context of “Merz warnt vor Putins „imperialistischem Plan“ – und gibt Diplomaten eine Botschaft mit”, these fluctuations may be connected to shifts in military demand and production schedules related to the ongoing geopolitical situation.

AFV Accaierie Beltrame Vicenza steel plant

AFV Accaierie Beltrame Vicenza, an Italian steel plant with an EAF-based production capacity of 1.2 million tons of crude steel, caters to the building and infrastructure, tools and machinery, and transport sectors. The plant’s activity exhibited a steady decline from 27% in March to 10% in September. There is no explicitly established connection between this decline and the provided news articles.

Tenaris Dalmine steel plant

Tenaris Dalmine, located in the Province of Bergamo, Italy, operates an EAF with a crude steel capacity of 700,000 tons, supplying the automotive, energy, and tools and machinery sectors with semi-finished and finished rolled products, including tubes and pipes. The plant’s activity increased from 58% in March to 65% in July, followed by a minor decrease to 64% in August and September. There is no explicitly established connection between this plant’s activity and the provided news articles.

Given the observed activity declines at the AFV Accaierie Beltrame Vicenza steel plant in Italy (from 27% to 10% between March and September) and the overall negative market sentiment amplified by geopolitical tensions, steel buyers should: