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Europe Steel Market: Ukrainian Export Shifts & Mixed Plant Activity Signal Cautious Optimism

Europe’s steel market is showing signs of cautious optimism amid shifting trade dynamics. Ukrainian export decreases, as highlighted in “Ukrainian steel companies reduced exports of semi-finished products by 36% y/y in January-July,” “Ukraine reduced iron ore exports by 8% y/y in January-July,” and “Ukraine’s ferroalloy industry exported 63.5 thousand tons of products in January-July,” may impact European steel supply chains, though no direct relationship can be established between this development and the activity levels of selected steel plants in other European countries, as observed via satellite.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Europe

The data reveals fluctuations in activity levels across the observed steel plants, relative to the mean. Makstil Skopje demonstrates a slight upward trend from March to June, peaking at 47%, followed by a decrease to 41% in August. Liberty Czestochowa shows a gradual decrease from March to June, reaching a low of 30%, followed by a small recovery to 33% in August. Feralpi Calvisano Lonato exhibits relative stability, hovering between 30% and 33%. Overall, the individual plant activity levels fluctuate around the mean steel plant activity in Europe, which itself exhibits substantial variation over the measured period. No direct connection can be established between these specific plant activities and the Ukrainian export news.

Makstil Skopje, an EAF-based steel plant in North Macedonia with a capacity of 550 ttpa focused on semi-finished slab products, saw a decrease in activity in August 2025 after a period of increased activity. The August activity level of 41% represents a decrease from the 47% observed in June. The significance of this observed drop in activity at Makstil Skopje, especially in light of decreased Ukrainian exports, cannot be directly connected based on the provided data.

Liberty Czestochowa, an EAF-based steel plant located in Poland with a crude steel capacity of 840 ttpa producing primarily plate, experienced a dip to 30% activity in June, but slightly recovered to 33% in August. Given that Poland is named as a key destination in the news article titled “Ukrainian steel companies reduced exports of semi-finished products by 36% y/y in January-July,” the observed activity trends require cautious monitoring.

Feralpi Calvisano Lonato, an EAF-based steel plant in Italy producing billets with a capacity of 600 ttpa, maintained a relatively stable activity level between 30% and 33% throughout the observed period, showing no significant deviation. No direct link can be established between the activity of Feralpi Calvisano Lonato and the provided news articles.

Given the decrease in Ukrainian exports, and potential impact in Poland, steel buyers should closely monitor steel prices in Poland. If Liberty Czestochowa continues to underperform, steel buyers should secure additional supply sources, especially for steel plate. Diversification of supply chains is recommended to mitigate risks associated with regional production fluctuations and geopolitical factors.