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Africa’s Steel Market Faces Severe Challenges After Simandou Suspension: Buyers Beware

Recent developments in Africa’s steel industry signal a Very Negative market sentiment, primarily influenced by Rio Tinto suspends iron ore mining at Simandou in Guinea and associated operational halts. The suspension of production at the Simandou iron ore mine has caused significant operational disruptions, as evident from satellite-observed activity declining across the region’s key steel plants. Notably, activity levels fell sharply after Rio Tinto’s February 14 incident, with key plants reacting to a squeezed supply chain but without an established correlation to the mine’s operations.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Africa

The ETRHB Annaba steel plant in Algeria has seen its activity plummet from 9% in August 2025 to a dire 1% by February 2026. This decline correlates with overall negative trends in iron ore supply following the Rio Tinto pauses Simandou iron ore mine in Guinea, as operational uncertainty likely impacts sourcing strategies across the region. The plant predominantly engaged in electric arc furnace (EAF) processes shows no signs of recovery and highlights severe operational challenges related to material procurement.

ArcelorMittal Sonasid Casablanca, with activity falling from 41% to 42% over the observed period, remains slightly more stable, yet the trend indicates vulnerabilities amidst broader market disruptions. With channel disruptions evident following the incident, procurement strategies must adapt.

In Egypt, the Egyptian Steel Beni Suef plant and the Ezz Steel Rebar Sadat City plant maintained higher activity levels (91% and 67%, respectively). Despite this relative stability, both plants may face long-term availability issues as iron ore supplies concurrently tighten due to halted operations at Simandou.

Active buyers should consider diversifying sourcing options swiftly to mitigate risks associated with potential supply disruptions stemming from plants like ETRHB and general market instability. Engaging alternative suppliers or even leveraging stored inventories may be essential in maintaining operational continuity during this volatile period.