EU Steel Market Faces Bearish Downturn: Plant Activity Mixed Amid Pricing Pressures

The European steel market is facing a bearish downturn, particularly in hot-rolled coil (HRC), as evidenced by the articles “EU HRC market looks towards bearish downturn,” “The HRC market in the EU expects a bearish decline,” and “Northwest European HRC prices reach a standstill.” These articles highlight declining demand, uncertain market conditions, and mills struggling to achieve higher prices. While these articles suggest a general market slowdown, no explicit connection could be established to observed activity changes at the selected steel plants via satellite data.

Bar chart and satellite map of steel production activity in Europe

The “Mean Steelplant Activity in Europe” contains large negative numbers for 2025-02-28 and later, rendering comparisons difficult.

Outokumpu Tornio steel plant: A significant activity drop was observed at the Outokumpu Tornio steel plant, an electric arc furnace (EAF) based producer of stainless steel in Finland, from 38% in March to 7% in May. This decrease might reflect broader market demand declines, however, no direct connection to the provided news articles could be established.

ArcelorMittal Bremen steel plant: Activity at the ArcelorMittal Bremen steel plant, an integrated BF/BOF producer of finished rolled products, increased from 8% in March to 27% in May. This integrated plant’s increase in activity contrasts with the general bearish sentiment, but no explicit link can be made to the provided news articles.

Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) steel plant: The Hüttenwerke Krupp Mannesmann (HKM) steel plant, an integrated BF/BOF producer of crude, semi-finished, and finished rolled products, has maintained a relatively stable activity level around 40% since November 2024. Again, no direct correlation can be drawn between this stable activity and the news articles.

The article “EU HRC: Italian mill cuts prices” reports on decreasing Italian HRC prices, with the Argus daily Italian HRC index falling to €603.75/t ex-works. This is linked to a mill reducing prices in response to a competitor. The article also mentions a fire affecting Acciaierie d’Italia’s smaller blast furnace, which could impact future supply. Coupled with the information from “EU protectionism will affect the purchase of rolls of Italian quality“, highlighting concerns about the impact of tightening European import restrictions on the availability of high-quality steel rolls, particularly from Italy, potential supply disruptions within Italy become more likely.

Evaluated Market Implications:

Based on the news article “EU HRC: Italian mill cuts prices,” the recent price decreases in the Italian HRC market suggest buyers may be able to negotiate more favorable terms in the short term, particularly when sourcing from Italian mills, but the fire at Acciaierie d’Italia introduces uncertainty. Given concerns raised in “EU protectionism will affect the purchase of rolls of Italian quality” about supply chain vulnerabilities due to import restrictions and limited domestic production, steel buyers are advised to closely monitor Italian steel production and inventory levels and to develop alternative sourcing strategies to mitigate potential supply disruptions.