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Try the Free AI Search EngineUkrainian Steel Market Shows Mixed Signals: Rising Rolled Steel Production Amidst Export Challenges
Ukraine’s steel market presents a complex picture. While rolled steel production saw a slight increase, as reported in “Ukraine produced 4.8 million tons of rolled steel in January-September,” iron ore exports faced a decline, according to “Ukraine reduced iron ore exports by 4.4% y/y in January-September.” This mixed performance occurs against a backdrop of rising domestic prices for certain construction steel products, indicated by “Prices for channel bars and hot-rolled sheets have risen the most in Ukraine since the beginning of the year,” which cites increasing prices for channel bars and hot-rolled sheets despite low market demand. It should be noted that no direct link could be established between specific satellite-observed plant activity changes and these price fluctuations.
The table below shows monthly aggregated activity levels (in %) of steel plants:
The mean steel plant activity in Ukraine peaked in July and August at 34%, then declined significantly to 14% in October. Donetsksteel Metallurgical Plant activity remained relatively stable, consistently below the mean and ending October at 15%. Metinvest Zaporizhstal steel plant activity mirrored the mean trend, peaking in June/July and then falling to 18% in October. Yenakiieve Iron & Steel Works showed the highest activity levels, remaining consistently above the mean and peaking in October at 44%. No direct link can be established between these activity shifts and the named news articles.
Donetsksteel Metallurgical Plant, an integrated plant producing pig iron, showed consistently low activity levels according to satellite observations. Despite its ResponsibleSteelCertification, the plant’s activity has remained below the national average, with a slight decrease to 15% in October. Given its product focus and relatively stable, low activity, Donetsksteel’s impact on the overall steel market appears limited.
Metinvest Zaporizhstal steel plant, a major producer of finished rolled products, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled sheets, experienced a decline in activity from 26% in July to 18% in October, mirroring the decline in average plant activity, but no explicit connection to the news articles can be confirmed. If the proposed 3200 TTPA BOF project is realized, the observed decrease could be a transition phase, suggesting possible upcoming changes in production capabilities. The rising prices for hot-rolled sheets, as described in “Prices for channel bars and hot-rolled sheets have risen the most in Ukraine since the beginning of the year” might reflect this reduced output.
Yenakiieve Iron & Steel Works, an integrated plant producing semi-finished and finished rolled products, exhibited the highest activity levels among the observed plants, peaking at 44% in October. This level defies the overall downward trend observed at other plants, as Yenakiieve’s levels remain consistently above the other observed steel plants, while still being one of the smaller of the plants observed in this report, with a 3300 Crude Steel capacity. This may also have an affect on “Prices for channel bars and hot-rolled sheets have risen the most in Ukraine since the beginning of the year“, as Yenakiieve produces channel bars as one of its main products.
Based on the presented information, the following procurement actions are recommended:
- Monitor Hot-Rolled Sheet Prices: Given the reported price increases in “Prices for channel bars and hot-rolled sheets have risen the most in Ukraine since the beginning of the year” and the observed activity decline at Metinvest Zaporizhstal steel plant, buyers should closely monitor hot-rolled sheet prices and consider diversifying suppliers.
- Assess Channel Bar Availability: The combination of increased prices for channel bars reported in “Prices for channel bars and hot-rolled sheets have risen the most in Ukraine since the beginning of the year” and the consistent output from Yenakiieve Iron & Steel Works suggests potential supply concentration. Buyers relying on channel bars should assess the implications of this concentration and confirm supply chain security.